Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
