A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
